Analysis

Which NFTs have consistently gained value in 2019?

Did you buy blockchain video game assets / NFTs this year? Wondering how has their value has evolved? Which assets are likely to continue to gain value?

zoup · · 09/10/19 · 3 min

Markets and speculation have undeniably made huge waves in the NFT and crypto-gaming landscape. Before we implement the algorithm that will allow you to determine the value of each of your assets in real-time, we present today a panorama showing the evolution of the average price of the assets of 17 major NFT projects.

Our methodology

Below are the results for each of the following 17 projects:

We have collected the transactions for each of these projects since 01/01/2019 and we focused on the following indicators:

Evolution of the number of monthly transactions
% of sales from the Primary market (Mint) – assets sold directly by the project
% of sales from Secondary Market (Sales) – assets sold by a User to Another User
The average value of each project assets per month (ETH / USD)

The results presented in this analysis do not constitute in any way financial investment advice. The trends observed over the previous months can not in any way predict the evolution of prices over the coming months.

How to analyze the results?

The two charts presented for each table make it possible to see the evolution of transaction volume (market activity/asset liquidity) – green curve – and to compare it with the evolution of the average price in USD – red curve.

To help you analyze these results, we give you some keys below, which are not exhaustive. It must be kept in mind that the trends presented by these graphs are to be correlated with the actuality of the project.

Case #1 – Volume decreases but the price goes up

Liquidity goes down, it is a little more difficult to sell assets, but assets that continue to trade are more valuable ones. Two possibilities: all assets have increased in value but the number of buyers has decreased, or the less valued assets have lost liquidity and buyers are focusing only on high-value assets.

Case #2 – Volume increases but the price goes down

Market liquidity is increasing, more and more transactions happen every day, but the assets traded are not necessarily increasing in value. Speculation (if it is speculation) is done on large volumes of assets more than on high-value assets. It will be easy to sell your assets, but you may not get a good price because the value is missing.

Case #3 – A large peak in volume but not correlated with the value

This can be read in many ways, the most obvious being the massive sale of assets by the project – which can be verified by the % of minted assets during this month.

Other phenomena may explain this case, including the arrival of new buyers on the market due to an advertisement or an effective marketing campaign. Finally, the last frequent explanation is the arrival of a whale who proceeded to a massive purchase of assets, at the current price. In most cases, this type of event is followed by a temporary and artificial increase in the price of assets, which falls quickly afterwards.

Case #4 – A significant peak in value but not correlated with volume

The first case that can be at the origin of this phenomenon is one or several extraordinary sales, as we have seen on CryptoKitties or Decentraland, where some assets sold for several hundred thousand dollars, while the market did not presage of such sale.

The other factor may be the sudden emission of very high-value tokens by the project, which will not necessarily be visible at the % mint level if it is a limited number of exclusive assets.

Case #5 – Any other weird pattern?

The best way to understand the evolution of these charts and their correlation is of course to follow the activity of the project itself, to determine what new functionality, what announcement, what contest, what arrival of investor could impact substantially the price of the assets.

Beyond these punctual events, the curves presented below over 7 or 8 months give us a good overview of the trend towards these different typologies of assets.