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Sorry… No NFT market crash so far!

zoup
zoup
2021-04-06
Are we currently in the first NFT Market Crash? Are NFT a Bubble?

Within a few short weeks we have witnessed sales records that have increasingly beaten the next, mainstream media who have discovered a passion for NFTs, Elon Musk writing a song about vanity and then selling it as an…NFT and how can we forget the Charmin brand of toilet paper, who is experimenting with an NFT auction with profits donated to charity?

Do you think that’s a lot all at once? Well, Tacos Bell and Pizza Hut are also in the game now! But our goal here is not to make an exhaustive list of all the international brands who are discovering the marketing power of NFTs but rather to ask a question that everyone who has been here since 2017 has asked: Are these the signals of a top and might it be time to sell before it all collapses?

This is a question that some media have recently wanted to answer prematurely! It almost seems that some have been eagerly awaiting a Market Correction, to finally prove that NFTs have just been in a bubble.

We’re really sorry to disappoint but we’ve looked at our data from all angles and there’s no NFT Market Crash to report yet!

What about NFT average price?

Weekly average price of all NFT (10.2020 to 04.2021)

The average price of NFTs spiked quite astoundingly in February, peaking at around $4,000 in mid-February. Since then, record sales continue to follow, averaging almost $1,500.

Of course, this shift in the curve was predictable, and is even reassuring as to any potential “Market Correction” that may arise.

This current average price represents an increase of around 10 times the average price of an NFT 6 months ago ($142 at the start of October 2020).

Can this be considered a price crash and the start of the market correction? Not exactly, the trend seems more to show a stabilization on a high plateau following a speculative peak.

The volume of assets traded has experienced an interesting lag, which can be explained by the growing interest of new buyers following record sales.

The volume of NFT trades per week more than doubled compared to the previous Quarter from ~ 20,000 trades per week to more than 40,000 weekly trades. Likewise, there is a high plateau phenomenon around 40,000 weekly trades, following the peak in mid-March at almost 80,000 weekly trades.

What happened at the NFT projects level?

Average price of the 3 most expensive NFT type on the market (10.2020 to 04.2021)

CryptoPunks is undoubtedly one of the most talked about projects in recent times, especially with regards to these record sales, respectively at $7,680,621 and $7,571,191 on 03.11.2021.

The average price of a CryptoPunks increased from $ 2,500 to $ 95,900 in the space of a few months, dropping back down to around $ 45,000 by the end of March.

SuperRare (Art MarketPlace) and HashMasks (Collectibles) projects showed more gradual growth, increasing the average value of an artwork sold on SuperRare from $ 1,232 to $ 12,166. (almost 10x).

Ok… but the NFT projects market should be crashing?

Not yet. We observe very strong fluctuations in terms of average value. These fluctuations are not specifically linked to the current context but rather to the sales of rare or exclusive assets that occur from time to time on each project.

Generally speaking, there is an overall increase in the value for each of these types of NFTs.

Average weekly NFT value evolution for the top #10 most liquid NFT markets.

Conclusions

Obviously, nothing today suggests what the future of the NFT markets will be. Given the recent hype surrounding this asset class, it is possible that some drastic changes will occur in the markets in the coming weeks.

But importantly for the moment, we are only witnessing a stabilization phenomenon, which follows the record sales especially on CryptoPunks.

Let’s not cry out too soon, NFTs still have a bright future ahead of them!

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